Description: Introduction to option pricing using Black-Scholes. Discussion on the limitations of Black-Scholes and of its alternatives such as Heston. Clear, accessible explanation of key results of mathematical finance including risk-neutral valuation.

Description: For a long time the primary focus of private LTC insurance companies has been to educate the public about the need for private LTC insurance and to make the product more acceptable to a wider population. To this end there have been numerous changes to the product design to make this product more acceptable to general population. However, one of the things that may have been overlooked in those product design changes is the need for alignment of policyholder and insurance company’s interests, which is to make coverage more affordable and to reduce adverse selection. Incentivizing good behavior from policyholders can not only make LTC insurance policies less expensive but also help policyholders make better health choices, which can help them stay healthy for a longer time. These incentives may also reduce some of the inherent risks in a long term care policy and may help in increasing the sales of private LTC insurance.

Description: Retirees and their advisors should construct diversified portfolios of retirement income, allocating among various retirement income classes that include Social Security, annuities, and systematic withdrawals from invested assets. This essay discusses the pros and cons of various retirement income generators and the issues with constructing retirement income portfolios.

Description: This paper analyzes the U. S. Treasury monthly interest rates from 1953 to 1992, and the daily rates from 1981 to 1992 for various forms of chaotic behavior. The primary analysis was in determining the Burst Exponent by the use of Rescaled Range Analysis. This paper also discusses other possible uses of Fractional Brownian Motion in Finance Theory, Macroeconomics, and Actuarial Science. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 VOL. 1.

Description: In this presentation, the authors develop a stochastic generator for the generation of scenarios of the S & P 500 index, dividend yield, consumer price index, and U.S. Treasury yields. They first create a set of 'stylized facts' for these series. These in-sample statistical models are themselves not suitable for generation of scenarios for decision making, but instead are additional stylized facts that assist in model development. The 'best' statistical model according to standard statistical model selection criteria can easily lead to a model that is highly unsuitable for generation of scenarios for decision making. The authors develop a stochastic generator that is suitable for decision making under uncertainty. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1997, Vol. 1.

Description: This article examines the history, theory, and effectiveness of high-deductible health plans and health savings accounts.

Description: Chronically low interest rates are a reflection of macroeconomic trends. Care must be exercised in making assumptions regarding mean reversion.

Description: This is a review of Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi’s book, Good Business: Leadership, Flow and the Making of Meaning.

Description: A review of the book "The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty" by Dan Ariely. The book is about lying, cheating, stealing, and shaving the truth -- something done by everybody, but the factors influencing this can be a bit surprising.

Description: This article provides a flavor for the wealth of statistical information provided by the Bureau Of Economic Analysis. It describes the BEA program, tells how to obtain BEA outputs, and looks at some issues BEA faces.